Analysis and prediction of polar motion using MSSA method

Abstract Polar motion is the movement of Earth's rotational axis relative to its crust, reflecting influence material exchange and mass redistribution each layer Earth on rotation axis. To better analyze temporally varying characteristics polar motion, multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) was used EOP 14 C04 series released by International Rotation Reference System Service (IERS) from 1962 2020, amplitude Chandler wobbles were found fluctuate between 20 200 mas decrease significantly over last years. The annual oscillation fluctuated 60 120 mas, long-term trend 3.72 mas/year, moving towards N56.79 °W. improve prediction MSSA method combining linear model autoregressive average predict with ahead 1 year, repeatedly. Comparing predictions IERS Bulletin A, results show that proposed can effectively improvement rates for 365 days into future approximately 50% average.